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RESEARCH: WORK IN PROGRESS
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- The Idiosyncratic Volatility Discount and the Size Effect
Small firms usually have high idiosyncratic volatility. The size effect says they should earn high returns.
The idiosyncratic volatility says just the opposite. This is why the size effect seems weak. When I sort stocks
on residual size, orthogonalized to idiosyncratic volatility, I find the size effect alive and well in all
periods. Sorting on residual size also eliminates the small growth anomaly and the negative size effect for
growth firms. Residual size sorts produce a better pricing factor I call RSMB. RSMB is less correlated with HML
and BVIX. Replacing SMB with RSMB makes the HML betas of new issues large and negative instead of zero.
- Idiosyncratic Volatility and Continuation Anomalies
I hypothesize that high volatility losers are low-risk firms, because the option-like nature of leverage makes
volatile losers a good hedge against aggregate volatility risk. I find that the relation between momentum and
idiosyncratic volatility is indeed strong for highly levered firms and absent for low leverage firms. This result
is primarily driven by the low returns earned by high volatility losers. I also find that business-cycle related
variables are able to predict most of the momentum differential between high and low volatility portfolios.
- Idiosyncratic Volatility, Growth Options, and Earnings Announcements
I predict that the hedging ability of high volatility and growth firms against adverse aggregate volatility
shocks is greater when idiosyncratic volatility is high. Idiosyncratic volatility is high at earnings
announcements. I argue that the well-known underperformance of growth stocks around earnings announcements
can be explained by the risk shift. I find a similar pattern for the idiosyncratic volatility discount,
especially if it is measured for growth stocks. The underperformance of growth and high volatility firms
around earnings announcements can be traced back to the decrease in their HML and BVIX betas.
- The Idiosyncratic Volatility Discount and Conservative Accounting
One of the attributes of high-quality accounting is conservatism. In the light of the recent evidence that
low idiosyncratic risk firms earn high future returns, I hypothesize that conservative accounting firms also
earn high future returns. I estimate the conservatism premium to be around 15 bp per month. The conservatism
premium appears unrelated to the size effect, the accrual anomaly, and even the idiosyncratic volatility
discount. I find that the conservatism premium is higher for growth stocks and can be partly explained by
the exposure to aggregate volatility risk. I also find that the conservatism premium is higher for highly
levered firms.
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